Views from a frontier markets pioneer
Presented by Dr. Slim Feriani
26th November 2014
Frontier markets (defined as countries which aren't deemed Developed or Emerging by index providers) represent c.150 countries spread across all continents. Frontier markets today remind us of the early days of emerging markets some 20 years ago. However, frontier markets are starting from a stronger base than emerging markets and are still very under-researched, under-owned and represent the most inefficiently priced equity markets globally.
An easy way to appreciate to some extent the positive changes witnessed by a number of frontier economies over the past two decades is to look at the significant development and progress achieved by several African countries (eg. Nigeria and Kenya) and Gulf countries (eg. Qatar and the UAE). As a group, frontier countries are coming out of economic obscurity into global relevance (eg. significant financial and natural resources) and have a growing and affluent middle class that wants mobile phones, cars and a house.
The outlook for frontier markets is likely to be bright and exciting for decades to come.
When economics meets psychology - can the actuary cope?
Presented by Amit Parmar
9th October 2014
It has become increasingly obvious that the facts and figures we learnt in the economics classroom are often not played out in the real world. Simple experiments on human behaviour give us some real insights into how the human brain works.
We assume that actuaries are well versed in their practice areas and act as rational beings. But what if the opposite was true and they actually acted irrationally?
Can we do experiments in the real world to predict behaviour and use these psychological factors in actuarial modelling and communication?
Lies, damned lies and football statistics
Presented by Lord Daniel Finkelstein
Sponsored by The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
3rd June 2014
Lord Finkelstein has been writing a column, the Fink Tank, in the Saturday edition of The Times for several years. In it, he uses statistical analysis and probability theory to explode some of the myths around the “confirmed wisdom” of commentators’ favourite football sayings. For example, is it really true that teams are more vulnerable when they are winning 2-0 than 1-0? Is conceding a goal just before half time really so significant to the end result? With the World Cup around the corner, it is only right and proper that Daniel is given the opportunity to tell the audience what is correct and what is statistically misguided about statements which have gone into folklore amongst football pundits.
The Risk Ridge
Presented by Martyn Dorey
6th March 2014
The Risk Ridge is a simple, yet little talked about, natural phenomenon. It affects our everyday life, our witty quips to our colleagues, our core political policy and even our very own survival. In this insightful talk, Martyn Dorey introduced the concept and discussed how we can apply it to solve one of the biggest challenges of investing: what risk do we take to best achieve our objectives?